** Forecast Models**

When a series of consumption values is analysed, certain patterns can usually be detected. From these patterns it is then possible to differentiate between various forecast models:

- constant

- trend

- seasonal

- seasonal trend

A constant consumption flow applies if consumption values vary very little from a stable mean value.

With a trend model, consumption values fall or rise constantly over a long period of time with only occasional deviations.

If periodically recurring peak or low values which differ significantly from a stable mean value are observed, it is a case of a seasonal consumption flow.

A seasonal trend consumption model is characterized by a continual increase or decrease of the mean value.

If none of the above patterns can be detected in a series of past consumption values, then we have an irregular consumption flow.

Please note that only the constant model and the trend model are supported by the material forecast. You can only use the seasonal and the seasonal trend models if you use the extended forecasting component.